Chile 2020 Plebiscite Report #1: The debate grows on social networksDaoura

As the National Plebiscite 2020 approaches, which will be held in Chile the upcoming April 26th, the debate on the topic between the people who approve and the ones who reject the new constitution is more present on social media in the country.

The data and insights extracted from Daoura Insights - between February 1st and March 10th 2020 - show the growth of manifestations with the word “plebiscite”, especially after the second half of February.

The hashtags “#yoapruebo” (#Iapprove) and “#yorechazo” (#Ireject), which are used to express the vote of the published manifestation’s author, also had an upward movement during the time period.

The words “plebiscite”, “yoapruebo” (Iapprove) and “yorechazo” (Ireject) were also independently analyzed, to understand their respective connections with other words in the manifestation’s sentiment index (if it expresses a positive, negative or neutral opinion) and the amount of published manifestations.

It’s noticeable that the word “plebiscite” has a strong correlation with the quantity of manifestations with the word “violence”, which indicates that when one of them increases in number of manifestations, the other one follows that same upward movement. The same was observed for the sentiment index, which when the manifestations related to a word are, on average, negative, those connected to the other word are negative as well.

The “#yoapruebo” (Iapprove) hashtag, in turn, has moderate correlations in sentiment and quantity of manifestations with the words “Dignidad square”, “equality”, “feminism” and with the hashtag “#noestamosenguerra” (wearenotatwar). Additionally, it presents a moderate to strong correlation to the quantity of manifestations with hashtags such as “#chiledesperto” (chilewokeup) and “#renunciapiñera” (piñeraresign).

Finally, the “yorechazo” (Ireject) hashtag presents a strong correlation on manifestations and a moderate one on sentiment to the words “left”, “violence”, “fear” and “politicians”, which are present in a significant quantity of manifestations related to the people who defend the rejection of the new constitution.

The expectation for the next few days is that the three words will continue to be present in social media debates, without major changes in current behavior.

*The number of manifestations is presented on a 100 basis, in other words, it represents the word’s relative presence in the universe of manifestations in which it is present. The value of 100 corresponds to the word’s occurrence peak, while the value of 50 represents half of the occurrence during that period.